Decision Making →
- 15 Oct 2019
- Working Paper Summaries
Vote Choice Formation and the Minimal Effects of TV Debates: Evidence from 61 Elections in 9 OECD Countries
This study of 61 elections around the world finds that vote choices aggregate a lot of information obtained during the electoral season, but the contribution of TV debates to this process is negligible.
- 18 Sep 2019
- Working Paper Summaries
Using Models to Persuade
“Model persuasion” happens when would-be persuaders offer receivers a streamlined way of understanding data they already know, especially when the data is open to interpretation. Using examples from finance, politics, and law, the authors find that truthtellers do not eliminate the impact of misleading persuasion because wrong models may better fit the past than correct models.
- 24 Jul 2019
- Lessons from the Classroom
Can These Business Students Motivate Londoners to Do the Right Thing?
In the Harvard Business School course Behavioral Insights, students work in the UK with psychology experts to understand what motivates consumers and workers. What they learn can help businesses of all types, says Michael Luca. Open for comment; 0 Comments.
- 07 Jun 2019
- Working Paper Summaries
Reflexivity in Credit Markets
Investors’ biases and market outcomes affect each other in a two-way feedback loop. This study develops a model of a credit market feedback loop, finding that when investors become more bullish this can predict positive returns in the short run, even if expected returns become more negative at longer horizons.
- 03 Jun 2019
- Working Paper Summaries
Memory and Representativeness
We explore the foundations of individuals’ probabilistic judgments, looking to better understand the sources of systematic errors. We conduct a laboratory experiment where participants view abstract images and are then asked to recall what they saw. We find evidence that interference in episodic memory contributes to biased probabilistic judgments.
- 10 May 2019
- Working Paper Summaries
Consumer Inertia and Market Power
Consumers are often more likely to buy a product if they have purchased it previously. This paper provides a means to estimate the magnitude of this phenomenon (i.e., consumer inertia) and shows how it affects the prices of firms in competitive settings. Perhaps surprisingly, greater consumer inertia can result in smaller price increases after a merger.
- 02 May 2019
- Sharpening Your Skills
How To Ask Better Questions
To make the best decisions, managers must ask the right questions. This collection of past studies by Harvard Business School researchers will help you gather the critical information needed to prepare for action. Open for comment; 0 Comments.
- 04 Mar 2019
- Working Paper Summaries
The Revision Bias
Companies often release revised editions of books, director’s cuts of movies, and technological updates, on the assumption that revising products and services leads to better outcomes. Nine studies, however, document the revision bias: the tendency to prefer things that were revised, regardless of whether the revised versions are objectively better than their predecessors.
- 27 Feb 2019
- Working Paper Summaries
Judgment Aggregation in Creative Production: Evidence from the Movie Industry
Selecting early-stage ideas in creative industries is challenging because consumer taste is hard to predict and the quantity to sift through is large. Using The Black List that ranks scripts annually based on nominations from film executives, this study shows that aggregating expert opinions helps reduce quality uncertainty and can influence high-budget production.
- 27 Feb 2019
- Research & Ideas
The Hidden Cost of a Product Recall
Product failures create managerial challenges for companies but market opportunities for competitors, says Ariel Dora Stern. The stakes have only grown higher. Open for comment; 0 Comments.
- 11 Feb 2019
- Working Paper Summaries
Gender Stereotypes in Deliberation and Team Decisions
Professional success requires the ability to contribute ideas, and receive credit for them. This paper explores gender differences in how men and women communicate and reward each other in team decision-making problems. We find that women are recognized less often for their contributions in male-typed domains.
- 05 Feb 2019
- Working Paper Summaries
Stereotypes and Belief Updating
Increasing evidence demonstrates that stereotyped beliefs drive key economic decisions. This paper shows the significant role of self-stereotyping in predicting beliefs about one’s own ability. Stereotypes do not just affect beliefs about ability when information is scarce. In fact, stereotypes color the way information is incorporated into beliefs, perpetuating initial biases.
- 07 Jan 2019
- Research & Ideas
The Better Way to Forecast the Future
We can forecast hurricane paths with great certainty, yet many businesses can't predict a supply chain snafu just around the corner. Yael Grushka-Cockayne says crowdsourcing can help. Open for comment; 0 Comments.
- 26 Nov 2018
- Working Paper Summaries
Demand Estimation in Models of Imperfect Competition
The study shows how knowledge about firm behavior can be modeled to better predict demand. Firms tend to raise prices in response to higher demand, so observed relationships between price and quantity can be quite misleading. The authors provide an adjustment that can be used when price experiments or instrumental variables are not available.
- 12 Nov 2018
- Research & Ideas
'Always On' Isn't Always Best for Team Decision-Making
Is it possible for teams to communicate too frequently? Research by Ethan Bernstein and colleagues suggests that groups that meet less often may be better at problem-solving. Open for comment; 0 Comments.
- 01 Nov 2018
- Working Paper Summaries
Forecasting Airport Transfer Passenger Flow Using Real-Time Data and Machine Learning
Passengers arriving at international hubs often endure delays, especially at immigration and security. This study of London’s Heathrow Airport develops a system to provide real-time information about transfer passengers’ journeys through the airport to better serve passengers, airlines, and their employees. It shows how advanced machine learning could be accessible to managers.
- 17 Oct 2018
- Working Paper Summaries
Quantile Forecasts of Product Life Cycles Using Exponential Smoothing
Many important business decisions rely on a manager’s forecast of a product or service’s life cycle. One of the most widely used forecasting techniques is exponential smoothing models. This paper introduces a model suitable for large-scale forecasting environments where key operational decisions depend on quantile forecasts.
- 19 Sep 2018
- Sharpening Your Skills
Say Again? Uncommon Advice for Common Business Problems
Sometimes the right answer is far from obvious. Learn why an introvert may be the best choice to lead your team, taking a pay cut might make you a better manager, and why you should not trust your gut when the pressure is on. Open for comment; 0 Comments.
- 30 Jul 2018
- Research & Ideas
Why Ethical People Become Unethical Negotiators
You may think you are an ethical person, but self-interest can cloud your judgment when you sit down at the bargaining table, says Max Bazerman. Open for comment; 0 Comments.
Persuasion by Populist Propaganda: Evidence from the 2015 Argentine Ballotage
This paper studies data generated prior to the 2015 Argentine presidential ballotage, when a government propaganda campaign was used to attack the opposition candidate and influence voter preferences. Results show the propaganda was persuasive.