Author Abstract
We estimate the causal effect of sovereign default on the equity returns of Argentine firms. We identify this effect by exploiting changes in the probability of Argentine sovereign default induced by legal rulings in the case of Republic of Argentina v. NML Capital. We find that a 10% increase in the probability of default causes a 6% decline in the value of Argentine equities and a 1% depreciation of a measure of the exchange rate. We examine the channels through which a sovereign default may affect the economy.
Paper Information
- Full Working Paper Text
- Working Paper Publication Date: May 2016
- HBS Working Paper Number: NBER Working Paper Series, No. 22270
- Faculty Unit(s): Business, Government and International Economy